Biden’s Cognitive State: Stable

I decided I should run numbers for Biden, as I did yesterday for Trump. As in analyzing Trump’s language, I used a speech from the 1980s as a baseline before looking at more recent speeches.

In the absence of complete medical reports, the quality of their speech provides perhaps the best proxy for evaluating both men’s cognitive state. In transcripts of their speeches, sentence complexity drops with age for both. Trump averaged 20 words per sentence in a 1980 interview; Biden averaged 18.7 words per sentence in a presidental campaign speech in 1987. Biden’s baseline grade level is 12.9, Trump’s 10.5.

Jumping ahead several decades, both men’s speeech demonstrates decreased complexity, as measured by sentence length, vocabulary, and other metrics.

But unlike Trump’s, Biden’s speech patterns have remained stable in recent years.

In three randomly chosen speeches from the past five years, Biden’s data are comparable. Average sentence lengths of speeches from 2019, 2021, and 2024 are 13, 16.6, and 14.2, while grade-level calculations come in at 9.5, 9.2, and 9.6.

Right-wing Republicans have asserted since before his presidency that Biden is mentally unfit for the office. In 2021, Lauren Bobert tweeted that cognitive decline made him a security risk. Moderate Republicans, however, found him sharp, well prepared, and cogent in discussions of policy and legislation.

The contrast is clear: unlike Biden’s, the complexity of Trump’s speech continues to drop.

Trump’s confident pugnacity has not changed.

But his speeches, and the thought processes they reveal, indicate that he is increasingly unable to grapple with complicated ideas and delicate negotiations. Even in comparison to 2017, the idea of Trump representing the United States in interactions with global heads of state is … unsettling.

Democrats have focused, appropriately, on Trump’s policy proposals and his extremist rhetoric, rather than descending to personal attacks. 

But the evidence of dwindling cognitive capacity and agility afforded by Trump’s speeches is hard to ignore. Americans across the political spectrum should worry, a lot, about his ability to govern.